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The idea
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Imagine you could make a seasonal forecast for the next month for a world that might have been if human activities had not emitted greenhouse gases. How would that forecast compare to the actual seasonal forecast for our real world? This is what we do here, compare actual seasonal forecasts against seasonal forecasts that might have been in that non-greenhouse gas world. Specifically, we compare the chances of pre-defined unusual monthly weather events in the two worlds, estimating how much more or less likely they are in our warming world than they might otherwise have been.
Further details are available here.
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Issued attribution forecasts
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Recent news
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| 2017-02-10: |
The preliminary March 2017 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only). |
| 2017-01-18: |
The preliminary February 2017 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only). |
| 2016-12-22: |
The preliminary January 2017 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only). |
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Last update:
10 February 2017
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Contact: Dáithí Stone (dstone@lbl.gov)
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© Copyright 2009-2017 Contributors to the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast
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