Project news

2017-02-10: The preliminary March 2017 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2017-01-18: The preliminary February 2017 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-12-22: The preliminary January 2017 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-11-23: The preliminary December 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The September 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-10-20: The preliminary November 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The August 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-09-09: The preliminary October 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-08-29: The preliminary September 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The June 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-07-18: The preliminary August 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The May 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-06-14: The preliminary July 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The April 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-05-23: The preliminary June 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-04-13: The preliminary May 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-04-12: The preliminary April 2016 attribution forecast was issued today, a tad late. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The January 2016 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-02-18: The preliminary March 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2016-01-18: The preliminary February 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-12-22: The preliminary January 2016 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-12-01: The preliminary December 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The September 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-10-30: Experience with development and operation of the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast featured in discussions informing a workshop last week contributing to an upcoming U.S. National Academy of Sciences report on "Extreme weather events and climate change attribution".
2015-10-20: The preliminary November 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The August 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-09-16: The preliminary October 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-08-20: The preliminary September 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The June 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-08-05: The preliminary July 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The April 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-08-05: The preliminary August 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The May 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-05-15: The preliminary June 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-04-28: The preliminary May 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-03-24: The preliminary April 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The January 2015 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-02-13: The preliminary March 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2015-01-16: The preliminary February 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-12-19: Research conducted under this project was presented in a presentation and a poster at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting this week. The poster described a reexamination of the role of anthropogenic emissions investigated in the "State if the Climate Report's" Attribution Supplement, but this timing using a standard set of data and techniques across all the events. The presentation described how we might proceed from addressing how the chance of extreme weather has been affected by anthropogenic emissions to how the risk of damage has been affected.
2014-12-11: The preliminary January 2015 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-11-14: The preliminary November 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The August 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-11-14: The preliminary December 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The September 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-09-16: The preliminary October 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-09-11: This week a summary of what we know about the sensitivity of estimates of the degree to which emissions have affected extreme weather to the spatial and temporal scales of the events was presented at the Attribution of Weather and Climate Extremes Workshop, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
2014-08-15: The preliminary September 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The June 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-07-10: The preliminary August 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The May 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-06-25: The preliminary July 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The April 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-05-15: The preliminary June 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-05-06: An analysis of estimates of the degree to which emissions have affected extreme events over South Africa as a function of geographic location has just been published in here.
2014-04-11: The preliminary May 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-03-28: An analysis of the degree to which emissions have affected the chance of high floods in the Okavango Delta has just been published here. UCT and LBNL have also posted press releases on this article: LBNL Computing Sciences' press release, NERSC's press release.
2014-03-27: A technical analysis of the sensitivity to spatial and temporal definitions of events of estimates of the degree to which emissions have affected extreme events has just been published in here.
2014-03-12: The preliminary April 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The January 2014 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-02-12: The preliminary February 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-02-12: The preliminary March 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2014-01-10: The preliminary January 2014 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-12-23: This week the generation of simulations at LBNL and UCT supporting the C20C Detection and Attribution Project and underlying the WRAF were presented at the 6th International Workshop of the Climate of the 20th Century Project, Melbourne, 5-8 November. This was done in one talk describing the C20C Detection and Attribution Project and in a poster analysing overall properties of attribution estimates based on the LBNL and UCT simulations.
2013-12-23: Due to recent disk failures, we apologise for being late on the monthly issue. The preliminary October 2013 and November 2013 attribution forecast have been re-issued today, and the December 2013 attribution forecast has been issued. The final version will be issued in three months (respectively) once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2013 and August 2013 attribution forecasts were re-updated today using observed sea surface temperatures, and the September 2013 attribution forecast was also updated (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-11-12: The Weather Risk Attribution Forecast was presented at the Africa Climate Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, 15-18 October 2013.
2013-11-12: The preliminary November 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The August 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-09-11: The preliminary October 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-08-09: The preliminary September 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The June 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-08-03: There are a few recent publications related to this project to report. First, interviews with members of the project were interviewed in a livescience article. This project was also involved in two recent scientific publications: a book chapter titled Attribution of weather and climate-related extreme events and an article in Nature Climate Change titled Loss and damage attribution.
2013-07-20: The preliminary August 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The May 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-07-05: Results from this project were presented in two talks and a poster at the 12th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology last week. One talk described the generation of simulations at LBNL and UCT supporting the C20C Detection and Attribution Project and underlying the WRAF, while the other talk described an attribution analysis of flooding in the Okavango Delta. The poster described the operational nature of the WRAF project.
2013-06-18: The preliminary July 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The April 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-05-17: The preliminary June 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-04-11: The preliminary May 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-03-22: The generation of simulations at LBNL and UCT supporting the C20C Detection and Attribution Project and underlying the WRAF were presented at Climate 2013, a workshop on the contribution of high performance computing to climate change research (Berkeley, California, USA).
2013-03-19: A short letter by some of the team commenting on a recent global detection study appeared today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
2013-03-18: The preliminary April 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The January 2013 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-03-15: The preliminary March 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2012 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2013-01-26: The preliminary February 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2012 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2012-12-21: The preliminary January 2013 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2012 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2012-12-05: Results from this project were presented in two posters at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting this week. The first poster described the generation of simulations at LBNL and UCT supporting the C20C Detection and Attribution Project and underlying the WRAF, while the second poster described the current status of the WRAF project.
2012-11-19: The preliminary December 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The September 2012 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2012-11-07: This Attribution Forecast project is discussed in an upcoming article in ScienceNews.
2012-10-18: The preliminary November 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The August 2012 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2012-09-20: The preliminary October 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2012 attribution forecast was updated today using observed sea surface temperatures (for HadAM3P-N96 only).
2012-09-10: A new version (#3) of the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast has been issued today. Some tweaks still need to be made over the next couple of months, but we felt it was now worthy of superceding the old version. The most visible change with this new version is the switch from the 17 regions of about 10 million km2 in size to 58 regions about 2 million km2 in size. Up until November 2011, the HadAM3P-N96 and HadAM3-N48 estimates now have 60 and 50 simulations as input, rather than the original 10 (which at the moment are still the input for everything more recent). Also, the HadAM3-N48 estimates since November 2011 have not been updated with actual observed sea surface temperatures. There are bigger changes beneath the surface though, with much increased versatility which we hope to take advantage of within the next few months. The old site is still available here but is no longer being updated.
2012-09-10: The preliminary September 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The June 2012 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-07-27: The preliminary August 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The May 2012 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-06-19: The preliminary July 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The April 2012 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-05-16: The preliminary June 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2012 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-04-27: The preliminary May 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2012 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-03-21: The preliminary April 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The January 2012 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-02-17: The preliminary March 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2012-02-06: This Attribution Forecast project was featured in the inaugural issue of NCAR/UCAR's AtmosNews today.
2012-01-26: The preliminary February 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-12-20: The preliminary January 2012 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-12-03: The preliminary December 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The September 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-11-01: The preliminary November 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The August 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-10-27: The attribution forecast for October 2011 was presented today at the World Climate Research Programme's Open Science Conference. Click here for the poster.
2011-10-27: Results from an attribution study of the 2009 and 2010 Okavango Delta floods using data from this attribution forecast product were presented today at the World Climate Research Programme's Open Science Conference. Click here for the poster.
2011-10-03: The preliminary October 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The July 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-08-15: The preliminary September 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The June 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-08-05: The preliminary August 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The May 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-06-28: The preliminary July 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The April 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-05-13: The preliminary June 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The March 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-04-13: The preliminary May 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The February 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-04-08: The preliminary April 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The January 2011 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures. Apologies for the delays caused by the move to a new disk system.
2011-02-18: The preliminary March 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The December 2010 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-01-25: The preliminary February 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The November 2010 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2011-01-10: We had an article appear today in the Cape Times about recent unusual weather events and the attribution problem.
2010-12-22: The preliminary January 2011 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The October 2010 attribution forecast was finalised today using observed sea surface temperatures.
2010-11-22: The preliminary December 2010 attribution forecast was issued today. The final version will be issued in three months once observed sea surface temperatures become available. The September 2010 attribution forecast was finalised today.
2010-11-09: This service was publicly launched today. Click here to see the press release from UCT's Communications and Marketing Department. (The launch of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas has been delayed.)
2010-10-18: This service has been made fully public today. A more formal launch event will be held along with the public launch of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas next week.
2010-10-04: This service is operational but still under final development. We are aiming for a public launch on 15 October, in association with the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas.
2010-08-18: Experiences in the development and testing of this forecast system were presented today at the Attribution Workshop (Broomfield, Colorado, U.S.A.).
2010-07-16: Scientific results of this forecast system were presented today at the 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (Edinburgh, U.K.).
2010-01-29: The first scientific results of this forecast system were presented today at the annual meeting of the International ad hoc Detection and Attribution Group (Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.).
2009-11-09: The first internal test of the system was circulated today with an October 2009 issue.
2009-09-10: The first presentation about this attribution forecast system was given today at the annual conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences (Tulbagh, Western Cape, South Africa).

Last update: 10 February 2017
Contact: Dáithí Stone (dstone@lbl.gov)

Copyright 2009-2017 Contributors to the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast

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Data portal
Much of this data is now available on the NERSC Earth System Grid Federation portal (search for "c20c")

Links
* NOAA's Climate Attribution page
* UCAR's Attribution of Climate Events page
* climateprediction.net's Seasonal attribution experiment